This market resolves to the company whose AI model is ranked #1 on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard (Overall category) at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026.
A model belongs to the organization LMArena lists for it. The lowest rank wins; if models share that rank, the higher arena score wins, and a remaining tie goes to the company whose name comes first alphabetically.
The ranking is read from LMArena's public leaderboard dataset (huggingface.co/datasets/lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset, CC BY 4.0), using its latest published leaderboard at or after the check time. A leaderboard published more than 7 days before the check time is treated as stale.
If the winner is not one of the listed options, "Other" resolves YES.
Trading closes at 16:00 UTC on November 30, 2026, before the outcome is read.
If the leaderboard is unavailable or stale, the market is reviewed manually.